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美聯儲加息的底氣:研究顯示美國已達到完全就業

雖然自2015年12月啟動本輪加息週期以來,美聯儲目前已加息8次,但靚麗的就業數據,仍然讓其加息底氣十足。 三藩市聯邦儲備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)近日的一項研究指出,自2015年以來,美國勞動力參與率穩定在62.8 %左右,而在研究了美國人口的潛在變化後(即老齡化和教育程度的變化),該行表示,這一水準也代表了美國勞動力參與的長期趨勢。 同時,根據美國勞工部此前公佈的非農數據,10月,美國失業人口僅小幅從596.4萬人增加到607.5萬人,而就業人口增加25萬大超預期。失業率為3.7%,這意味著美國失業率已降至50年前的水準。 對於這種穩定的勞動參與率,疊加低失業率的情況,三藩市聯邦儲備銀行認為,這表明美國勞動力市場當前的情況,已經處在或者超過其全部潛力的水準。 彭博指出,穩定的勞動參與率也暗示了經濟相對於充分就業的運行情況,勞動力市場也沒有出現過度緊張。而過度緊張的市場則可能會刺激工資上漲,最終導致不必要的通貨膨脹。 近年來,美聯儲一直保持著循序漸進的加息路徑。 11月8日,雖然美聯儲按兵不動,維持2%-2.25%的聯邦基金目標利率區間不變。但聯儲聲明也重申未來循序漸進加息及前一次會議對利率行動的預期: 聯儲貨幣政策委員會(FOMC)預計,聯邦基金利率目標區間進一步循序漸進上升將與經濟活動的持續擴張、強勁的勞動力市場環境和通脹中期內接近FOMC2%的對稱目標相一致。經濟前景面臨的風險表現得大致均衡。 美聯儲主席鮑威爾於上周的達拉斯聯儲會議上曾表示,對美國經濟現狀感到滿意,通脹也正處於美聯儲2%的通脹目標。但目前面臨的挑戰包括如何進一步加息,以及加息速度: “美聯儲會繼續監控金融狀況,我們不得不思考還能加息多少,以及加息的幅度與節奏。我認為,我們要採取的路徑是非常小心地審視市場、經濟、商業聯絡人如何回應貨幣政策。 我們的目標是延續美國經濟復蘇,並且保持失業率和通脹處於低位,這是我們考慮問題的思路。” 本週一,紐約聯儲主席John Williams也提到,美聯儲將堅持其漸進式的加息,可能會一定程度上提高利率,美聯儲目標是延長經濟擴張時間,保持低通脹率。但他強調,美聯儲會在經濟強勁的背景下加息,加息政策不是“預設的”。 摩根士丹利首席美國經濟學家Ellen Zentner認為,美聯儲會保持目前的加息路徑,直到利率升至它所認為的中性區間,隨後才有可能暫停加息,而這要在今年12月以及明年3月和6月這三次加息之後才會發生。

2018-11-20
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港股加速下跌:恒指跌破26000點,騰訊跌超3%,蘋果概念股齊跌

騰訊低開2.4%;舜宇光學、瑞聲科技、富智康分別低開2.1%、2.3%、3.3%;美圖低開6%。 週二早盤,香港恒生指數低開1.25%,報26043.51點。國企指數跌1.3%。 盤初,港股指數跌幅均擴大。恒指一度跌破26000點,跌幅1.4%。此後股指迅速拉升,恒指跌幅收窄至1%。 科網股領跌,騰訊控股低開2.4%,當前跌幅擴大至逾2.75%。 受隔夜蘋果傳出不利砍單消息及股價跌入熊市拖累,今晨在港上市的舜宇光學、瑞聲科技、富智康分別低開2.1%、2.3%、3.3%。比亞迪電子低開超2%。 晶片股同樣受美股同行拖累而受挫,華虹半導體、中芯國際分別低開2.6%、2.8%。 中興通訊跌2.92%。昨日美國聯邦公報網站公佈稱,由美國商務部工業與安全局提交的一份針對關鍵技術和相關產品的出口管制框架方案將面向公眾開展意見徵詢。其中列出了14個考慮進行管制的領域,包括人工智慧、晶片、量子計算、機器人、面部和聲紋技術、腦機介面等前沿科技。 軟體服務板塊跌超2%,阿裏健康跌5.6%。 美圖大幅低開6%,此前公司稱預期今年12月底止年度淨虧損9.5億元至12億元,上年度虧損1.97億元。 小米集團逆市高開0.1%,盤中漲幅擴大至逾4%,近兩日累漲近10%。美圖向小米授權手機業務,達成戰略合作。小米財報顯示,第三季度收入508億元,同比增49.1%;經調整利潤29億元,同比增17.3%。 高盛上調小米目標價,由23港元升至24港元,維持“買入”投資評級。花旗也給出買入評級,目標價17港元。但美銀美林重申給予小米跑輸大市評級。 華爾街見聞提及,昨日美國三大股指集體重挫,蘋果收跌3.96%。供應商Lumentum、Skyworks Solutions和Qorvo股價下跌3-5%不等。涵蓋部分蘋果供應商在內的費城半導體指數跌3.9%。稍早華爾街日報稱,蘋果削減iPhone XR,XS和XS Max的訂單。 至此,“FAANG”五大科技股全部跌入熊市區間,較各自52周高點跌逾20%,市值合計蒸發萬億美元。 香港耀才證券認為,港股昨日跟隨A股上揚,不過成交量僅803億元,反映投資者入市意願不大,但只要短期A股仍能維持4000億元人民幣以上水準,預期恒指仍能持續反彈,且看短期能否伺機挑戰26500點附近。  

2018-11-20
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梦想还是要有的!汇丰2018年十大风险之一:万一美元重拾牛市

2018年谨防美元重拾牛市 汇丰银行在12月13日公布的报告中表示,明年的十大风险之一,在于如果通胀和薪资上升,那么美联储就会拿出更为鹰派的态度,美元就有望重拾牛市: 有什么交易提醒? 汇丰表示,如果美元出现上涨,那么新兴市场的部分货币可能首当其冲出现贬值,人民币的情况相对复杂,有可能出现较为宽泛的贬值: G10货币中,汇丰欧元会表现的更有“韧性”: 黄金方面,以美元计的黄金料出现下跌,但考虑到美元的反弹,美元以外地区的实物黄金价格可能会变得更为昂贵: 股市方面, 美元的走强,料推动其他央行加息? 汇丰同时认为,若美元走强可能会推动其他国家央行加息,这些国家货币兑美元相对不会走弱太多: 不过汇丰同时也表示,现在推动美元上涨的主要因素是通胀的上升和薪资的走强,但美元的走强可能也会影响到美联储的加息进程:

2017-12-20
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騰訊和京東8.63億美元入股唯品會

中國互聯網巨頭騰訊(Tencent)和京東(JD.com)同意對線上折扣零售商唯品會(Vipshop)投資8.63億美元。 唯品會在聲明中表示,遊戲和訊息應用公司騰訊以及電商公司京東將以每股A類普通股65.40美元的價格入股唯品會,相當於每份美國存托憑證13.08美元,比唯品會股票上周五的收盤價溢價55%。 騰訊和京東將分別斥資6.04億美元和2.59億美元購買唯品會新發行的A類普通股。投資完成後,騰訊將持有唯品會7%的股份,京東將持有5.5%的股份。 根據協議,唯品會將能夠利用騰訊旗下社交媒體應用微信(Wechat)的流量。唯品會還將出現在京東移動端應用主介面和微信頁面上。 京東董事長兼首席執行官劉強東(Richard Liu,文首圖左)表示,與唯品會達成的協議將幫助京東“進一步加快我們進軍女性消費者市場的步伐,並進一步擴大我們時尚業務的廣度和深度”。 唯品會表示,這筆交易預計將在近期完成。 上周五,超市運營商永輝超市(Yonghui Superstores)表示,騰訊同意以42.2億元人民幣(合63.8億美元)的價格收購永輝超市5%的股份。這筆交易標誌著中國互聯網公司進軍實體零售行業的最新動作。

2017-12-20
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Monthly Outlook December 2017 - Macro Picture

Shanggu Asset Management (Asia) Limited Monthly Outlook December 2017 Macro Picture US •              The US Senate passed the tax bill, cutting the corporate tax from 35% to 20%. •              Market expects three to four 25 bps each rate hikes in 2018 •              The latest quarter showed that 78% of reported earnings beat expectation. Europe •              Latest German political episode brings uncertainty.  Angela Merkel and Social Democratic leaders are in talk about re-running the coalition government. •              ECB extended QE by nine months at a reduced pace of EUR 30 billion per month, ending in September 2018. •              The latest data reflected that only 55% of reported earnings beat expectation. Japan •              The country's seventh straight quarter of GDP growth was much stronger than estimated.  Nominal GDP was revised up to an annualized 3.2% expansion Q/Q from an initial 2.5% gain. •              BOJ is unlikely to tighten the monetary policy soon after Abe's winning in the election. China •              PBOC uses macro-prudential policies to cool property market and contains leverage in the system. •              China's purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector edged up to 51.8 in November from 51.6 in October. Asset Allocation - Equities US Equities The key factor underpinning US equities has been the resilience of its corporate earnings.  Almost 78% of companies’ earnings beat market expectation.  S&P 500 has risen by 17.7% YTD, trading at 22.21x PE. The corporate tax reform may have a significant impact on different sectors.  Most IT companies already pay lower average taxes under the current system.  However, the tax savings effect is much pronounced in the old economy stocks.  Therefore, industrials, energy and consumption sectors are likely to be benefitted.  Furthermore, The Feb chairman elect Powell indicated that the present regulations on banks are good enough, implying no further tightening on the way.  This is supportive to the banking sector. Europe Equities The Euro Stoxx 50 has risen by 9.5% so far this year with P/E at 18.77x.  After a relatively good year for European stocks, marked by a nice corporate profit revival, people expect further earnings growth for the region. That may help stocks withstand political risks as well as the negative impact from a potential rally in the EUR. Equity multiples do not look cheap in absolute terms, but relatively to both bonds and credit. Further volatility in 2018 is anticipated given QE withdrawal, bond yield spikes and peak macro data.  Overweight is assigned to construction, chemicals, financials; and underweight to utilities and food. Japan Equities The Japanese economy has grown for seven straight quarters, its longest expansion since comparable data back to the mid-1990s.  A nearly year-long recovery in exports is driving corpoarte profits and business investment.  Wage-inflation dynamics remain weak for the time being.  Inflation expectations are subdued.  A virtuous cycle of rising wages, demand, and prices is not yet clearly in sight. The economy's reliance on external demand continues to increase.  Therefore, exporters' stocks are preferred.  With the TOPIX up by 19.7% YTD, trading at a modest 16.35x P/E, we maintain a neutral weight for the Japanese stock market. China/HK Equities Overweight rating is given to HK/China equities.  The 19th Party Congress promotes the quality of growth and new areas of industry development while affirming the continuity of property tightening and corpoarte deleveraging process in 2018.  However, the economy is likely to keep a 6.5% YOY growth supported by the fair global economy, industrial restructuring and consumption upgrades. Thanks to the good momentum of China's economic growth, strong increase in Chinese corporate earnings, continued southbound net investment inflows and inexpensive valuation, HK market is still attractive. Investors may focus on five investment themes in the months to come, namely, supply-side structural reform, SOE reform, Belt & Road initiatives, consumption upgrade and mainland-HK stock links. Asset Allocation – Bonds Corporate Credits The year-end outlook is full of uncertainties: the unpredictable White House and fiscal agenda; and the Federal Reserves and European Central Bank that are unwinding or slowing down bond-buying programmes.  Growth is picking up, keeping a lid on corporate defaults and leverage.  On the other hand, we have warnings coming through from Chair Yellen and Mr. Powell about the level of debt, and there has been concerns about sustainability.  And in the US it is particularly referring to the sovereign debt. Fed seemed pretty determined to hike.  Quite a few other central banks have got the same idea about wanting to try to normalize at some point, that puts a floor under rates, yields.  However, some analysts doubt that the yield of 10-year US Treasuries can go beyond 2.6% level, which we saw earlier this year. Disclaimers & Important Notice Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources believed to be reliable. However, we do not verify such information. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor do we take responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. SG International Group Limited (or one of its affiliates) or their officers, directors, analysts, or employees may have positions in securities or commodities referred to herein, and may, as principal or agent, buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer, or a director of SG International Group Limited, or its affiliates, may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor opinion expressed in this report shall constitute a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. There may be instances when fundamental, technical, and quantitative opinions may not be in concert. This firm (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. There are risks inherent in international investments, which may make such investments unsuitable for certain clients. These include, for example, economic, political, currency exchange rate fluctuations, and limited availability of information on international securities. We recommend that you obtain the advice of your Financial Advisor regarding this or other investment in order to conform to your financial resources and risk preference

2017-12-12
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Monthly Outlook November 2017 - Macro Picture

Shanggu Asset Management (Asia) Limited Monthly Outlook November 2017 Macro Picture US President Trump named Powell as the next Fed Chairman.  The present monetary policy is likely to be continued. Fed is patient in rate hike. Europe ECB will cut its monthly bond purchase to EUR 30 billion per month from January and maintain its buying until the end of September 2018. As quantitative easing can still be extended in terms of size and duration, rate hike cycle is less likely before 2019. Japan Abe retained two-thirds of majority in the House of Representatives. Bank of Japan will maintain the easing monetary policy. China President Xi talked about the ’new era’ of Chinese power during the Chinese party congress. China’s GDP came in at 6.8%, in line with market expectation. PBOC imposes measures on the property market, and contains leverage in the system. Asset Allocation - Equities US Equities S&P 500 has risen by 15.7% YTD, trading at 21.87x PE.  However, caution should be taken due to: (a) The unwinding of “Trump Trade”, and (b) Valuation concerns. It is evident from the relative performance of global cyclicals over non-cyclicals that investors are unwinding their asset reflation trades, as the Trump Administration continues to flounder on its fiscal agenda. Without the economic/earnings kicker from fiscal stimulus, it is hard to justify the elevated valuation for US equities. The key factor underpinning US equities has been the resilience of its corporate earnings.  Almost 79% of companies’ earnings beat market expectation. Much of this robust momentum, however, was attributed to the technology sector (it registered the largest proportion of earnings surprises in recent quarters).  But with so many expectations embedded into this space, even slight earnings disappointments could trigger profit-taking in technology stocks, dragging the broader index lower. We, therefore, keep underweight in the US equities. Europe Equities We assign neutral rating in the European equities.  The sharp rally in the euro has been a cause for concern for European equities. Since the start of the year, the EUR/USD has increased 10.6% to 1.164 (as of 31 Oct). According to conventional wisdom, a strong euro is typically negative for European exporters as well as companies with large non-euro denominated revenue.  The relationship between the euro and European equities has historically been unstable, and it is therefore not possible to conclude with certainty that euro strength will necessarily translate into sustained weakness for domestic equities. While we believe that broad euro strength will not derail domestic equities, some sectors will perform better than others in Europe. We prefer domestic consumption plays over sectors with huge global exposures. Our preference is premised on two factors: (1) Correlations show that domestic consumption sectors like utilities, telecoms, and financials have a lower inverse relationship with the EUR/USD; and (2) Euro strength translates to disinflationary pressure domestically, prompting the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain broad monetary accommodation. This is positive for domestic consumption plays. Japan Equities We maintain a neutral view on Japan, but two factors may be constructive: Firstly, the dollar index finally bottomed in September 2017, and then started weakening; Secondly, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito scored a land-slide victory on 22 Oct 2017, making Abe the most powerful prime minister in post-war Japanese history.  The political stability means a continuation of ‘Abenomics’, which have already borne fruit.  As the TOPIX trades at 16.3x PE, we expect the index will stabilize around the current modest level. China Equities Overweight rating is given to HK/China equities.  As the Hang Seng Index trades at 13.8x PE, funds have been flowing into the HK stock market.  Banks and Insurance companies may get benefit from the buying spree.  I.T sector is likely another candidate in this round of repricing process. Asset Allocation – Bonds Emerging Markets (EM) Bonds A combination of several factors such as: i) US President Donald Trump’s inability (so far) to implement his policies, some of which were perceived to be positive for growth and inflation; ii) The absence of a pick-up in inflation in most markets; and iii) Rising geopolitical tension, which led to a pause in US Treasury rates, has supported a better-than-expected return for EM bond investors. It remains a challenge, however, for EM bond investors to find value. Yields have fallen further through the year. We believe there are still selective opportunities in the BBB/BB rating buckets, although investment at this point is more for coupon carry than meaningful price appreciation.  Any temporary correction will likely be seen as a buying opportunity, given the technical strength of the market. Disclaimers & Important Notice Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources believed to be reliable. However, we do not verify such information. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor do we take responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. SG International Group Limited (or one of its affiliates) or their officers, directors, analysts, or employees may have positions in securities or commodities referred to herein, and may, as principal or agent, buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer, or a director of SG International Group Limited, or its affiliates, may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor opinion expressed in this report shall constitute a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. There may be instances when fundamental, technical, and quantitative opinions may not be in concert. This firm (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. There are risks inherent in international investments, which may make such investments unsuitable for certain clients. These include, for example, economic, political, currency exchange rate fluctuations, and limited availability of information on international securities. We recommend that you obtain the advice of your Financial Advisor regarding this or other investment to conform to your financial resources and risk preference

2017-11-08
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中国美元主权债券遭疯抢:超额10倍认购!

*本文来自华尔街见闻(微信ID:wallstreetcn),作者祁月。更多精彩资讯请登陆wallstreetcn.com,或下载华尔街见闻APP。*本文首发于14:10,更新于16:30,“五倍认购”更新为“十倍认购”。 周四,中国政府再次回归国际债券市场,尘封十三年的中国主权外币债券发行再度开启,受到资本市场的热烈追捧。 媒体称,中国美元主权债券认购订单金额已达200亿美元,为计划发行金额20亿美元的十倍。而在开放圈购后的一小时内,认购订单金额已超过100亿美元。花旗、汇丰、渣打、德意志银行等多家外资行纷纷参与其中。 “每个人都想拿到这个债券。息差很窄,但我们很有兴趣,因为在同样期限债券中,多次发行的风险很小,”媒体援引Aberdeen Standard Investments基金经理人Edmund Goh的话称。 中国此次重启主权外币债券发行并没有做第三方评级。一位不愿具名的国内评级公司高管对华尔街见闻表示,由于在香港发债没有强制评级规定,不评级是正常行为。 这次五年期及十年期各发行10亿美元。五年期债收益率较可比美国国债高出30-40个基点,在2.35%-2.45%区间;十年期债收益率较同期限美债高出40-50个基点,在2.83%-2.93%区间。 当前,美国五年期国债收益率交投于2.03%一线,十年期国债收益率交投于2.41%一线。 景顺资管驻香港亚洲固定收益部门投资总监Ken Hu此前表示,按照美国和其他大型主权发行人的标准衡量,中国此次发债规模不大,可能为这批美元债券创造稀缺价值,这将推动债券价格走高,收益率下降。 如果这批中国主权债券定价低于今年早些时候韩国发行的主权债,则将刷新亚洲债券发行记录。今年1月,韩国发行规模10亿美元的十年期美元主权债,票面利率2.75%,较同期美债高出0.55%。当时获得标普AA平均,较中国同期债券评级高出两档,与美债收益率之差是亚洲最低的。 新的里程碑 不采用国际评级机构评级

2017-10-26
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上古亚洲任泰州华信药业全球协调人 成功为其发行 363

2017-10-23
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泰州华信药业363天美元城投债定价4.5%

泰州市政府旗下城投平台——泰州华信药业投资有限公司(Taizhou Huaxin Pharmaceutical Investment Co., Ltd.,以下简称“泰州华信”)本周二定价一笔RegS、1.2亿美元、363天短期限(2017-10-24 ~ 2018-10-22)、高级无抵押、无评级美元债TZHuaxin 4.5 10/22/18,FPG 4.5% (the number),发行价4.5%,现金发行价100。 债券由华信药业(香港)有限公司(Huaxin Pharmaceutical (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd.)发行,泰州华信担保,所筹款项用作营运资金及一般公司用途。 债券包含“控制权变更回售权”(CoC Put),回售价为面额的101%。 海通国际、Shanggu Asia担任联席全球协调人,海通国际、Shanggu Asia、胜利证券(Victory Securities)担任联席牵头经办人、联席簿记人。 泰州华信总部位于江苏省泰州市,截至2017年3月底,由泰州市政府控股71.1%并实际控制。此外,富安达资产管理(上海)有限公司持股28.15%,国开发展基金有限公司持股0.75%。 泰州华信的主营业务包括:泰州医药园区的基础设施及公共服务平台建设、园区土地开发、药品销售、租赁。

2017-10-23
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財經要聞--每日簡報2017-9-15

美國勞工部周四公布8月消費者物價指數(CPI)月增0.4%,高於市場預估的月增0.3%,創1月來最大月增幅。主要是哈維來襲令德州多家煉油廠停工,導致美國汽油價格因供應減少而急速上漲,加上從藥物到居住等價格均上漲而刺激CPI上升。 英倫銀行維持基準利率在0.25厘不變,符合市場預期,並一致同意維持國債購買目標在4350億英鎊及公司債購買目標在100億英鎊不變。不過,央行表示,對於通脹率高於目標水平的容忍度減弱,委員們一致認為利率可能以比市場預期更快的速度上升。英倫銀行表示,大部分貨幣政策委員會(MPC)委員認為如果經濟增長繼續,以及基礎物價壓力上升,則未來數月有可能撤出部分刺激措施。 中國固定資產投資、工業增加值、零售增速遜預期。國家統計局公布,今年首8個月,全國固定資產投資39.42萬億元(人民幣‧下同),按年增長7.8%,遜於市場預期按年增8.2%。8月規模以上工業增加值按年增長6%,遜於市場預期增長6.6%,比7月份回落0.4個百分點。社會消費品零售總額3.03萬億元,按年名義增長10.1%,遜於市場預期增10.5%。

2017-09-15
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